CNPC: China's crude demand peaks in 2026 as EVs slash transport fuel
China's largest oil firm predicts demand peak amid EV truck surge and refining overcapacity.
Executives from China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the country's largest oil firm, announced that China's crude oil demand is set to peak in 2026. Vice-president Zhang Changbao attributed the decline to Beijing's aggressive push for electric vehicles (EVs), particularly heavy-duty trucks, which are rapidly replacing diesel-powered transport. Combined with massive investments in renewable energy, the reduction in transport fuel use is now outpacing growth in petrochemical demand. This marks a historic turning point for the world's top oil importer and signals a structural shift in global energy markets.
Meanwhile, CNPC chief economist Dai Jiaquan highlighted a growing domestic challenge: persistent refining overcapacity. China's crude demand is estimated at 750–800 million tonnes per year, while refining capacity stands at 900 million to 1 billion tonnes—a gap that pressures margins and exports. The Strait of Hormuz crisis earlier this year disrupted global supply chains, pushing the market from an expected surplus into a supply deficit. However, China's declining demand could partially offset geopolitical supply risks, reshaping crude trade flows and refinery economics worldwide.
- CNPC executives state China's crude oil demand will peak in 2026, driven by EV adoption (especially trucks) and renewable energy expansion.
- Refining overcapacity is a key issue: demand at 750–800 million tonnes per year vs. capacity of 900 million to 1 billion tonnes.
- Strait of Hormuz disruptions flipped the global oil market from surplus to deficit, but China's peak demand may soften long-term import needs.
Why It Matters
China's peak oil demand signals a major shift in global energy markets, driven by EV adoption.