Iran pivots to offensive strategy as US diplomacy stalls over Hormuz

Iran has begun signalling a strategic shift from retaliation to offence, according to a new report, as six months of war with the United States and Israel reach a critical juncture. Tehran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffled top military commanders earlier this month, instructing them to strengthen 'maximum deterrence' and prepare for 'large-scale offensive operations.' A deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards also indicated that military doctrine is being revised to make offensive operations a strategic priority, a move that analysts view as a calculated response to a stalled diplomatic track.

The shift reflects Tehran's belief that it holds leverage, primarily through its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments that the US has sought to blockade. While Iran has previously framed its strikes as revenge for US-Israeli attacks since the war began on February 28, officials now openly discuss proactive escalation. Analyst Sina Toossi of the Centre for International Policy argues this does not mean Iran is adopting a preventive war doctrine, but rather that Tehran has concluded it should escalate earlier and more forcefully if confrontation becomes unavoidable, rather than let Washington or Israel define the terms. The strategy aims to force US concessions over the naval blockade and energy trade, even as it risks further destabilizing global energy markets.