Hong Kong raises 2026 GDP forecast after robust 5.1% H1 growth

Hong Kong authorities will revise upward the city's 2026 economic growth forecast after a stronger-than-expected first half, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po announced in his weekly blog. The Census and Statistics Department will lift its GDP projection later this month, following a 5.1% year-on-year expansion in H1 2026. Previously, the full-year forecast stood at 2.5-3.5% growth. Chan attributed the outperformance to robust global demand for AI products, which continues to boost Hong Kong's exports, alongside sustained overseas demand for financial and business services and rising tourist arrivals that support consumption and investment.

Chan also pledged to further promote the international use of the yuan (RMB), coinciding with the debut of offshore Chinese government bond futures on the Hong Kong stock exchange. He cautioned that geopolitical developments, US dollar interest rates, and other uncertainties could still affect the outlook. "We will remain highly vigilant and work hard to grow the economy while safeguarding economic and financial security," he said. The move signals Hong Kong's ambition to strengthen its role as a global financial hub and expand RMB-denominated products, even as external risks persist.