Winners of the Manifund Essay Prize

Manifund has announced the winners of its Essay Prize, originally planned for three categories but expanded to 12 due to the quality of submissions. The essays address challenges in EA funding, San Francisco fieldbuilding, and decision-relevant forecasting. In the Manifund category, first place went to Evan Miyazono's 'Your Solution Doesn’t Know Your Problem Exists,' which argues for dedicated 'field strategists' who can identify bottlenecks and coordinate solutions across organizational silos—a role he sees growing as AI funding skyrockets. Miyazono critiques the 'law of the instrument' where VCs, policymakers, and researchers each default to their own tools, leaving cross-cutting problems unsolved.

Second place went to Sophie Kim and Ady Mehta's 'The Anthropic IPO Is Coming. We Aren’t Ready for It.' They highlight that Anthropic's seven co-founders have pledged 80% of their wealth, and with Forbes valuing each stake at ~1.8% of the company, a public offering at current valuation would yield roughly $37.8 billion combined—nearly ten times what Coefficient Giving has ever distributed. The essay calls for new mechanisms to absorb this torrent of philanthropic capital. Other winners cover topics like forecasting accuracy and effective field-building strategies, offering concrete insights for the EA community as it braces for unprecedented financial inflows.