Why today’s ‘unravelled’ international order echoes the lead-up to WWI
Dangerous pre-war psychology is forming amid US-China tensions and unilateral actions.
Former White House adviser Thomas Wright has sounded a stark alarm: the international order today is starting to mimic the dangerous pre-war environment of 1914. Speaking at the Lowy Institute in Melbourne, Wright — who served under President Joe Biden as senior director for strategic planning on the National Security Council — pointed to a familiar pattern: a revisionist power (China), deep uncertainty over the balance of forces, accelerating arms development, and eroding trust in American alliance commitments.
Wright argued that the psychology of aging decision makers may be the most troubling factor. With time running out, some leaders may see the current moment as a closing window to reshape the global system, making restraint harder and risk-taking more attractive. This mindset, he said, is historically exactly the kind that makes pre-war periods so dangerous. The warning comes amid a raft of unilateral actions by the Trump administration that have further frayed international norms.
- Thomas Wright, ex-NSC senior director, warned at the Lowy Institute in Melbourne that current conditions mirror pre-WWI dynamics.
- Key factors include China's rapid rise, arms acceleration, and doubts about US alliance commitments.
- Ageing decision makers' 'now-or-never' psychology increases the risk of miscalculation and conflict.
Why It Matters
This geopolitical analysis highlights real risks of great-power conflict that could reshape global stability and commerce.