When to Take One Box, When to Take Two: A Concrete Analysis of Newcomb's Problem

This is a link post for my paper on When to Take One Box, When to Take Two: A Concrete Analysis of Newcomb's Problem (also on arxiv and philsci-archive ). I assume you all know about Newcomb's problem - it's a mainstay of lesswrong discourse. And you probably also think that taking one box is obviou