The propensity for disobedience: Rule-breaking, compliance and social phase transitions

A new research paper titled 'The propensity for disobedience: Rule-breaking, compliance and social phase transitions' applies principles from statistical physics to model societal behavior. Authored by physicist Nuno Crokidakis, the study uses a replicator-type dynamics framework with utility functions that weigh individual benefits against institutional punishment and social sanctions. The core finding is that social systems can exist in two stable states—widespread compliance or widespread violation—and the transition between them isn't always gradual.

The model reveals two distinct pathways for societal change. When positive social feedback is present (where seeing others break rules makes you more likely to do so), the system exhibits bistability and undergoes a discontinuous, first-order phase transition. This means societies can suddenly and irreversibly flip from order to chaos once a critical threshold is crossed. In contrast, with negative feedback (where increased rule-breaking raises collective costs), the transition is continuous and more manageable. Numerical simulations show how tipping points are sensitive to changes in enforcement strength, social tolerance levels, and the perceived benefits of noncompliance.

The research, submitted to arXiv, provides a formal theoretical explanation for the observed fragility of social order under weak institutions. It highlights how seemingly stable societies can rapidly descend into widespread disobedience, similar to how materials change phase. The framework also suggests potential intervention points, indicating that strengthening institutions before reaching a critical threshold may be more effective than trying to reverse widespread noncompliance after it has taken hold.