Probabilistic Frequency Hazard Analysis: Adapting the Seismic Hazard Framework to Power System Frequency Exceedance Risk

A new research paper by Sewedo Todowede introduces Probabilistic Frequency Hazard Analysis (PFHA), a groundbreaking framework that adapts the mathematical core of earthquake engineering—Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)—to assess risks in modern power grids. As renewable energy integration reduces system inertia, grids become more vulnerable to frequency instability following disturbances like generator losses. PFHA addresses key gaps in existing methods by providing formal uncertainty quantification, continuous hazard curves, and the ability to disaggregate risk by its source, offering a much more rigorous probabilistic assessment.

The framework is implemented with a detailed 51-source disturbance catalog built from operational data and employs a massive 324-path logic tree to quantify epistemic uncertainty. When tested on the Great Britain power system using four years of real data, PFHA's predictions aligned closely with an independent industry report, validating its accuracy. Crucially, the model also quantified the significant risk reduction provided by modern grid controls like Dynamic Containment, demonstrating its practical utility for system operators planning a secure energy transition.