Post-Scarcity is bullshit

A provocative essay by AI researcher David Krueger (capybaralet) titled 'Post-Scarcity is bullshit' has gone viral on LessWrong, challenging a foundational tenet of tech optimism. Krueger systematically dismantles the idea that advanced AI will usher in an era of limitless abundance where all material needs are met. He argues that even with AI doing all work cheaply, fundamental human drivers like competition for status, power, and inherently scarce resources (like physical space and prime real estate) will prevent true post-scarcity. The essay points to the persistent existence of extreme poverty and homelessness as evidence that material wealth alone does not solve distributional problems.

Krueger introduces the economic concept of 'positional goods'—items like status, exclusive locations, or unique experiences whose value derives from others not having them. He contends that AI cannot make these abundant, as scarcity is their defining feature. The piece also questions whether a world without work would be desirable, suggesting people derive meaning from labor. By highlighting the gap between Keynes's 1930 prediction of a 15-hour workweek and today's reality, Krueger urges a more nuanced, economically-grounded view of AI's impact, moving beyond simplistic utopian narratives to address hard questions of value, purpose, and inequality.