SpaceX Falcon 9 dominance leaves Europe paying 3x more for launches

A new study published in Economics Letters by UK and Italian policy researchers quantifies how SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has transformed the global launch industry. Mining data from more than 6,700 launches between 1960 and 2025, the authors found that the US share of annual global payload to orbit collapsed from nearly 50% in the 1990s to under 20% by 2012, only to surge past 82% by 2024. This dramatic reversal is driven almost entirely by Falcon 9's high cadence, stage reuse, and economies of scale, which have made the US the clear leader in orbital mass delivery.

The cost disparity is equally stark. The average price per kilogram to orbit now stands at $3,225 in the US, compared to $9,897 in Europe, $6,682 in Russia, and $5,809 in China. The researchers attribute the gap to larger rockets, increased flight rates, and reusability—capabilities that Europe's current Ariane and Vega families lack at commercial scale. As a result, the paper concludes that Europe is "stuck between a rock and a hard place," forced to choose between depending on lower-cost American launch technology or subsidizing expensive, poorly scalable domestic alternatives. For policymakers, the path forward requires modernizing launch infrastructure or accepting strategic dependence on SpaceX.