Enterprise & Industry

Pakistan’s forever war and the politics of exhaustion

Decades of ambiguous 'good Taliban/bad Taliban' policy leads to renewed border conflict and internal collapse.

Deep Dive

An opinion piece by Jawad Khalid in the South China Morning Post analyzes the renewed military escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, framing it as the latest chapter in a 25-year 'forever war' that has cost over 33,000 Pakistani lives. The conflict's roots lie in Pakistan's deeply contradictory post-9/11 policy, where the state acted as a key U.S. ally while its security apparatus maintained a dangerous 'good Taliban/bad Taliban' binary—supporting militants fighting NATO in Afghanistan while battling the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) at home. This ambiguity allowed the TTP to flourish, unleashing a deadly wave of domestic terrorism that displaced millions and fractured social trust, particularly among Pashtun communities bearing the brunt of the violence.

The 2021 U.S. withdrawal and Taliban return to power in Kabul initially sparked optimism in Islamabad for a friendly neighbor, but relations have sharply deteriorated. Pakistan now accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing safe havens and material support to the TTP, citing UN reports and the post-takeover release of TTP prisoners. With border clashes and airstrikes escalating, Khalid argues Pakistan faces an existential crisis not from Afghanistan, but from its own shattered economy, security apparatus, and divided society after decades of conflict. The piece concludes that the nation's urgent need is internal stabilization, not another external war, highlighting a generation raised on resentment and deep mistrust of the state.

Key Points
  • The 'War on Terror' has lasted 25+ years in Pakistan, resulting in over 33,000 civilian and security force deaths and millions displaced.
  • Pakistan's contradictory policy of supporting 'good Taliban' in Afghanistan while fighting 'bad Taliban' (the TTP) domestically proved catastrophic, fueling internal terrorism.
  • The 2021 Afghan Taliban takeover destroyed hopes for peace, with Pakistan now accusing Kabul of sheltering TTP militants, leading to recent airstrikes and border clashes.

Why It Matters

Highlights how flawed AI/geopolitical analysis and state policy can fuel decades of instability, with direct lessons for security and intelligence applications.