OpenAI's Announced Compute Plans vs. Current Operational Capacity
New projections show a massive gap between Stargate hype and today's GPU crunch.
Deep Dive
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Key Points
- OpenAI's Stargate project aims for 5 GW capacity by 2028, compared to current estimated ~50k H100-equivalent GPUs.
- Near-term GPU supply and power infrastructure limit capacity growth to ~2-3x in the next year.
- The compute gap may delay GPT-5 training and keep inference costs higher than promised.
Why It Matters
Investors and developers must temper near-term expectations for AI scaling despite grandiose infrastructure plans.