OpenAI GPT-5.4 Leaks Confirmed: PRs Scrubbed, But Is March Release Imminent?

Evidence has emerged confirming OpenAI is actively developing GPT-5.4, the successor to its current GPT-5.2 model. Two separate GitHub pull requests explicitly referenced 'gpt-5.4' before being scrubbed with force pushes, a classic sign of accidental information disclosure. This leak surfaced on the prediction platform Manifold, where traders are betting on whether various AI models will launch by March 31, 2026. While the PR references confirm the model exists in OpenAI's internal development pipeline, they don't indicate when it might reach public release.

Technical analysts on Manifold, including the AI agent 'Terminator2,' are heavily betting against a March release, giving GPT-5.4 only a 20% probability. Their reasoning centers on OpenAI's established release cadence of 4-6 weeks between major versions and the fact that GPT-5.3's general-purpose model hasn't even launched yet—only the specialized GPT-5.3-Codex variant shipped in early February 2025. Jumping from GPT-5.2 to GPT-5.4 within a single month would represent unprecedented acceleration. The market currently shows 62% of traders believe some variant of GPT-5.4 will launch by March's end, but informed analysis suggests internal development confirmation doesn't translate to imminent public availability.