One rule for Israel and another for Iran risks nuclear disaster

Academic Marianne Hanson, in a piece for *This Week in Asia*, issues a stark warning about the dangerous nuclear double standard in the Middle East. While Israel's avowed goal in the ongoing conflict is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, Israel itself is widely believed to possess a formidable arsenal of 80 to 90 warheads, developed in secret since the 1950s. This "worst-kept secret" in global politics creates a fundamentally unsustainable and hypocritical foundation for regional security, where one state's nuclear monopoly is used to justify denying another.

The immediate risks of this policy were thrown into sharp relief when Iran recently targeted Israel's nuclear facility in Dimona, injuring more than 100 people. The attack prompted the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to call for restraint to avoid a potential "nuclear accident." Hanson argues that maintaining such an unequal and unacknowledged status quo—where Israel's arsenal is an open secret it neither confirms nor denies—only fuels instability. It incentivizes proliferation attempts by rivals and turns nuclear sites into targets, dramatically increasing the chances of a miscalculation or attack that could lead to a regional or even global catastrophe. The long-term solution, she implies, must involve a more equitable and transparent approach to nuclear security for all states in the region.