New Rule Could Stop Cherry-Picking in Consciousness Research

The article introduces the Reach Principle: a success in adversarial testing of scientific theories reaches only as deep as its matching failure would have cut. It warns that adversarial tests of consciousness theories can become a one-way evidential ratchet—successes are claimed for the research program, while failures land on an auxiliary in measurement or implementation—whenever attribution is settled after the outcome is known.

To counter this, the article defines a preregisterable test object that puts the attribution policy on record before the result: what is compared, under which assumptions, when data suffice to settle an outcome, and which targets of a dated theory version each outcome exposes. The Measure Centrality Index 2.0 extends the original version to the positive-evidence side, recording for every possible outcome what it would count against and what its proponent has agreed to change.

In Cogitate’s third prediction, the preregistered target was the posterior-connectivity implementation, while the mathematical or computational core of Global Neuronal Workspace Theory and Integrated Information Theory stood outside the test; the record shows a pass could have been claimed at any depth because nothing fenced success the way the failure was bound. The next preregistration can set reach in advance, so support for a theory reaches only what was exposed ex ante.