Nick Bostrom: Optimal Timing for Superintelligence
A controversial new framework suggests we should accelerate AI development, not slow it down.
Deep Dive
Nick Bostrom's new working paper analyzes optimal AI pause strategies to maximize saved human lives. The model balances extinction risk against AI developing biological immortality. Surprisingly, it suggests even high catastrophe probabilities are often worth accepting. For many scenarios, the optimal strategy is to move quickly to AGI capability, then implement a brief pause before full deployment. The analysis deliberately uses a 'normal person' viewpoint focused on saving current human lives.
Why It Matters
This could reshape the global AI safety debate, providing a data-driven argument against long pauses.