My One-Year-Old Predictions for What the World Will Look Like in 3 Years

In a viral post originally written in January 2025, forecaster Ihor Kendiukhov outlines a stark vision for January 2028, centered on the complete transformation of the AI industry. His core prediction is that major AGI labs (like those from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind) will be either nationalized or operate under strict government protection and audit, treated as national security assets. Frontier models will be inaccessible to the public, partly because a single query is predicted to cost "tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars." This shift is framed within a full-scale US-China tech confrontation, with near-total bans on chip exports.

Kendiukhov also details the technological and economic landscape. He predicts frontier AI will be "distinctly superhuman" in theoretical domains like mathematics and programming, far surpassing any human. In the economy, he foresees a paradox: while AI agents outperform humans at most 2025-era jobs, mass unemployment and roboticization have not materialized. Instead, a new corporate structure emerges, with "5–20 human managers + thousands of AI agents" running companies, leading to "unicorns with only a handful of employees." Despite over a trillion dollars spent on server infrastructure, energy scarcity begins to curb growth, and while AI-driven drug candidates flood clinical trials, the macroeconomic statistics show little visible impact.