Modeling the Senegalese artisanal fisheries migrations

A team of researchers from ESP and UMMISCO has developed a novel multi-agent simulation model to analyze the complex dynamics of Senegal's artisanal fishing fleet, the largest in West Africa. The interdisciplinary study, published on arXiv, integrates data on climate, fishing effort, and socio-economic parameters to understand the drivers behind the fleet's increasing migration distances since the 1980s. The model was designed to serve as a decision-support tool for regional development and spatial management policies, particularly as marine protected areas and other infrastructure measures are implemented.

The simulation's preliminary results reveal three critical scenarios. First, climate change is projected to have only a slight impact on the fishery, even under extreme scenarios. Second, and most alarmingly, if the current high fishing effort is maintained, the model predicts a total collapse of the fishery, triggering massive migrations of fishers regardless of climate conditions. This trend has already been observed, with fishers increasingly navigating to the Canary Islands since 2007. Third, the model shows a path to sustainability: with reduced fishing effort, a stable equilibrium emerges where Senegal's artisanal fishery could sustainably catch approximately 250,000 tons of fish per year, a level comparable to the 2000s records. This sustainable outcome held true across the climate scenarios tested, highlighting that managing human activity, not just environmental factors, is the key to preventing collapse.