METR Time Horizons: Now 10x/Year
New data shows AI capabilities are improving twice as fast as we thought.
Deep Dive
METR's latest Time Horizon update reveals AI models are now improving at a rate of 10x per year, a dramatic acceleration from the previous 3x annual rate. This 3.5-month doubling pace, based on models from 2024-2025, suggests significantly shorter timelines. While the benchmark focuses on coding tasks, a separate Epoch Capabilities Index confirms the acceleration trend that began in early 2024. The data points to a potential median timeline of just 3 years to AGI.
Why It Matters
This acceleration could place the arrival of transformative, human-level AI within the next few years, not decades.