AI Progress Accelerates 10x Per Year, Suggests AGI by 2030
New data shows AI capabilities are improving twice as fast as we thought.
Deep Dive
METR's latest Time Horizon update reveals AI models are now improving at a rate of 10x per year, a dramatic acceleration from the previous 3x annual rate. This 3.5-month doubling pace, based on models from 2024-2025, suggests significantly shorter timelines. While the benchmark focuses on coding tasks, a separate Epoch Capabilities Index confirms the acceleration trend that began in early 2024. The data points to a potential median timeline of just 3 years to AGI.
Why It Matters
This acceleration could place the arrival of transformative, human-level AI within the next few years, not decades.