LIMBO: Who We Are, What We Do, and an Exciting High-Impact Funding Opportunity
Research group claims mathematical framework successfully anticipated AI chip shortages and geopolitical crises through simulation theory.
The Laboratory for Importance-sampled Measure and Bayesian Observation (LIMBO) has publicly introduced its research at the intersection of cosmological theory, probability, and existential risk. Founded in October 2024, the group developed a mathematical framework for anthropic reasoning about rare-event estimation, operating under the assumption that we might be living in a simulation with finite compute. They argue that if this is true, observers should find themselves in times and places 'interesting to the simulator,' and point to recent chaotic events in AI development and international relations as evidence.
LIMBO claims to have validated their framework through successful financial predictions, specifically citing bets on AI chip supply chain disruptions (including the Hurricane Helene impact on quartz mines) and geopolitical crises like the India-Pakistan missile exchanges and US-Iran conflicts. The group, which includes experts in importance sampling, rare-event estimation, and foreign policy, is now seeking funding after their prediction market revenue strategy was disrupted by regulatory changes. They position their work as addressing important, neglected questions about how observers continue to exist in the universe.
- LIMBO's mathematical framework assumes we're in a simulation and uses this to predict 'interesting' world events
- Group claims successful predictions on AI chip shortages (Hurricane Helene quartz mine impact) and geopolitical crises
- Seeking funding after prediction market revenue stream was disrupted by regulatory changes
Why It Matters
If their approach works, it could create new methods for anticipating black swan events in technology and geopolitics.