Labor Automation Tournament — $35,000 in prizes, hub launching April 20
93 questions predict job changes for software devs, nurses, and wages through 2035.
Metaculus, the prediction platform, has launched a major forecasting competition called the Labor Automation Tournament, offering $35,000 in total prizes. The goal is to build a clearer, data-driven picture of how AI will reshape the future of work—a topic with high stakes but little consensus. The tournament consists of 93 specific questions covering occupation-level employment shifts (like software developers and registered nurses), wage trajectories, AI daily usage rates, and macro labor market indicators through 2035. Questions are split into near-term (closing by end of 2030) and longer-term (through 2035) horizons.
Aggregate forecasts from the tournament will be published on a public Labor Automation Forecasting Hub launching April 20, serving as a resource for tracking how community and expert predictions evolve. The prize pool is divided into three parts: $5,000 for top commenters based on reasoning quality, $10,000 for accuracy on near-term questions (awarded 2031), and $20,000 for long-term questions (awarded 2036). The organizers are specifically seeking input from professionals in labor economics, AI research, and workforce policy, offering early hub access for collaboration.
- $35,000 prize pool split between forecasting accuracy and quality of reasoning in comments.
- 93 specific questions predict changes for jobs like software developers and nurses, plus wages and AI adoption through 2035.
- Public Forecasting Hub launches April 20 to track predictions as a resource for policymakers and researchers.
Why It Matters
Creates a crucial, crowdsourced dataset to inform workforce planning, education policy, and business strategy as AI automation accelerates.