Iran pressuring Houthis to attack Red Sea ships, European officials say

According to European officials familiar with the matter, Iran is actively pushing its Yemen-based proxy, the Houthi militant group, to prepare for a renewed campaign targeting commercial shipping in the critical Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This potential escalation is reportedly contingent on any further military escalation by the United States in its ongoing conflict with the Islamic Republic. The Houthi leadership is weighing more aggressive options following their recent ballistic missile attacks on Israel, though internal divisions exist regarding the scale of their response, which partly explains their delayed entry into the broader regional conflict a month after it began.

In a public announcement, the Houthis stated they would continue military operations until US-Israeli attacks on Iran and its allied groups, like Lebanon's Hezbollah, cease. Notably, they did not explicitly state an intention to target tankers or other vessels transiting the Red Sea. Concurrently, US and Saudi Arabian officials have conveyed to European allies their assessment that the Houthis currently wish to avoid further escalation and direct attacks on American and Saudi assets for the time being. This situation creates a volatile standoff where the threat of disruption to one of the world's most vital maritime chokepoints for oil and trade hangs in the balance, dependent on the actions of multiple state and non-state actors.