Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub
AI-exposed occupations to shrink 17.2%, while youth unemployment for college grads could double.
Metaculus has launched the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, a continuously updated platform that aggregates crowd-sourced forecasts on how AI will reshape the US labor market by 2035. Built for policymakers, educators, and business leaders, the hub predicts a 3% decline in overall employment, countering the Bureau of Labor Statistics' projection of 3% growth. It highlights a stark divergence in job prospects: the most AI-exposed occupations, like Software Developers and Financial Specialists, are forecast to shrink by 17.2%, while less exposed roles, such as Registered Nurses and K-12 Teachers, are projected to grow by 4.6%. The platform also tracks a significant rise in labor productivity (+25.2%) and a shift in national income from labor to capital.
The hub reveals deeper structural changes, forecasting labor's share of national income to fall from 62.1% to 55.6% and the long-term unemployment rate to jump from 0.99% to 6.14% by 2035. Young workers are expected to be hit hardest, with unemployment for 4-year college graduates potentially doubling to 12%. In contrast, trade school and community college certificates are forecast to grow in value by 26%. The tool includes an Activity Monitor for tracking AI news and model releases, state-level views, and conditional forecasts, allowing users to explore scenarios like a world with no AI progress. It provides a data-driven, real-time counterpoint to traditional economic projections, emphasizing the redistributive and capital-intensive nature of AI advancement.
- Forecasts a 3% overall decline in US employment by 2035, with high-exposure jobs shrinking 17.2% and low-exposure jobs growing 4.6%.
- Predicts major structural shifts: labor's share of income drops to 55.6%, long-term unemployment rises to 6.14%, and youth unemployment for college grads could double.
- The hub is a real-time, crowd-sourced tool for policymakers, featuring conditional forecasts, state-level data, and tracking of AI model releases.
Why It Matters
Provides a crucial, data-driven forecast for business and policy leaders to navigate the coming decade of AI-driven labor market transformation.