Middle powers' plan to avoid US AI dominance: leverage China threat

A new LessWrong analysis argues that as US companies race toward superintelligence, middle powers like the UK, European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan face existential risk of being economically and militarily marginalized. The author proposes a two-part strategy: first, leverage the US's need for allies against China to secure continued access to frontier AI systems and technologies on equal terms. This includes insisting on commercial parity and military access, while noting that AI companies benefit from a larger market.

If the US refuses, the backup plan involves credibly threatening to pivot to China—providing chips and diplomatic support in exchange for AI access. Stage two extends this by using the leverage accumulated during the intelligence explosion to ensure that any future superintelligence is bound to protect middle powers' sovereignty, preventing the US from using dominance to disempower them. The post emphasizes that much economic value from AI comes from complementary inputs like factories and expertise, so middle powers can remain relevant if they secure AI access.