Grading AI 2027's 2025 Predictions
A major AI forecasting report just graded its own 2025 predictions—here's what it got wrong.
Deep Dive
The viral AI 2027 report has graded its quantitative predictions for 2025, finding real-world progress is moving at only 65% of its forecasted pace. Key benchmarks like SWEBench-Verified (predicted 85%, actual 74.5%) lag significantly. This slower pace pushes the predicted timeline for full coding automation and a subsequent superintelligence takeoff from late-2027 to between mid-2028 and mid-2030, according to the report's updated model.
Why It Matters
This recalibration suggests the path to transformative AI may be longer than some leading forecasts anticipated, impacting strategic planning.