Wall Street swaps 'Taco' for 'Nacho' as oil gridlock bets rise
Traders now bet on prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade, not Trump backing down.
Wall Street traders have developed a new market catchphrase: 'Nacho' — short for 'Not a chance Hormuz opens.' It replaces last year's dominant acronym 'Taco' ('Trump always chickens out'), which was born during the tariff blitz when investors bet the president would eventually back down. Now, with a fragile US-Iran ceasefire barely holding and the Strait of Hormuz still blockaded after Operation Epic Fury, traders are pivoting to expectations of prolonged gridlock and sustained high oil prices. The term gained traction after Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas shared it on social media in late April, attributing the phrase to a trader.
The shift comes as all eyes turn to the upcoming Trump-Xi summit in China. While the US military action against Iran has officially concluded, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, full de-escalation has not materialized. The Strait remains effectively closed, leaving global energy markets in uncertainty. Unlike the 'Taco' trade, which relied on Trump's volatility and tariff leverage, 'Nacho' reflects a more structural bet: that geopolitical friction in the Middle East will persist, keeping oil prices elevated and supply chains strained. For investors, this means recalibrating portfolios away from quick trade-war pivots and toward longer-term energy and defense plays.
- 'Nacho' stands for 'Not a chance Hormuz opens', replacing last year's 'Taco' ('Trump always chickens out').
- The term was popularized by Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas after a trader shared it in late April 2026.
- Despite the end of Operation Epic Fury, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, keeping oil prices high.
Why It Matters
Investors must shift from tariff-driven bets to long-term geopolitical risk from Middle East gridlock.