Forecasting Walkthrough with Metaculus pro ExMateriae
The top-ranked forecaster on Metaculus will publicly dissect his entire reasoning process for one question.
ExMateriae, the professional forecaster who topped both the baseline accuracy and commenting leaderboards on the prediction platform Metaculus in 2025, is offering an unprecedented look into his craft. In a live event hosted on LessWrong, he will perform a complete walkthrough of a single forecasting question, meticulously detailing his entire reasoning process from start to finish. This is a unique educational opportunity, as top forecasters' specific analytical techniques and cognitive workflows are rarely shared publicly with such granularity.
The event, organized by Vojtech Brynych as part of a "Deliberate Practice Forecasting & Prediction" series, aims to demystify high-level forecasting. Attendees will see how a leading expert gathers evidence, weighs probabilities, adjusts for biases, and arrives at a calibrated prediction. For the forecasting community and rationalist circles, this session is akin to a masterclass, providing a concrete model for improving practical rationality and decision-making under uncertainty.
- ExMateriae is the #1 ranked forecaster on Metaculus for both accuracy and commenting in 2025.
- The event features a complete, step-by-step walkthrough of his reasoning on a single forecasting question.
- This transparent breakdown of a pro's methodology is a rare educational resource for improving predictive skills.
Why It Matters
It provides a replicable blueprint for improving decision-making and probabilistic reasoning in business and policy.