Encampment clearances push homeless into shadows, not housing

A new arXiv paper by Brandon Morande, Kim Serry, Amy Hagopian, and Zack W. Almquist examines the aftermath of encampment clearances in US cities. The study leverages longitudinal street outreach data to track where unhoused people go after forced displacement—a tactic emboldened by the Supreme Court's 2024 Grants Pass decision. Using relational event models, the team predicts post-removal outcomes like relocating to different census tracts, entering shelter, or obtaining permanent housing. Their results paint a grim picture: displaced residents typically move only short distances, and clearances mostly succeed in making homelessness less visible by shrinking camp communities rather than solving housing instability.

Notably, the analysis reveals that very few displaced individuals transition indoors, while a significant share lose contact with outreach workers and service providers entirely. These patterns held across demographics, though people with mental health conditions showed stronger attachments to their original encampment locations. Neighborhood conditions also appear to influence where people end up, hinting that local policies and resources shape migration paths. The authors argue these findings corroborate research on place attachment and the "invisibilization of poverty"—clearances push people out of sight without addressing root causes. They call for deeper investigation into how forced displacement affects long-term housing pathways, urging cities to reconsider tactics that sever support networks rather than building them.