Pitz and Ferraz's new framework models strategic crises without probabilities

Thomas Pitz and Vinícius Ferraz have published a 129-page formal framework extending the original Scenario Bundle Analysis (SBA) by Amos Perlmutter and Reinhard Selten. Their Extended Scenario Bundle Analysis introduces a two-layer architecture that separates a static scenario database from a dynamic scenario tree system, enabling more flexible and auditable strategic modeling. The framework incorporates a richer attitude vocabulary including beliefs, desires, intentions, fears, and coalitional commitments, with expectations treated as doxastic attitudes. It also adds a domain/modifier layer for contextual framing, a topology on admissible scenario spaces, typed assessment-state updates, and multi-criteria evaluation. All mathematical definitions are stated with sufficient precision to support computational implementation.

This work addresses a key gap in strategic crisis analysis: combining qualitative expert judgment with explicit interdependence and auditable update rules without relying on fully specified payoffs or probabilities. The extended framework allows decision-makers to model complex scenarios with multiple stakeholders and evolving attitudes, making it particularly relevant for fields like security, geopolitics, and economic forecasting. By providing formal definitions and a clear architecture, the authors enable both human analysts and AI systems to work with structured scenario bundles that can be updated transparently as new information arrives. The paper includes 20 figures, 17 tables, and 137 references, positioning it as a comprehensive reference for researchers and practitioners in theoretical economics and game theory.