Surname Analysis Reveals 200-Year Decline of Elite Dominance in Chilean Congress
Using 22.6M birth records, researchers tracked elite power shifts from 1834 to 2020.
A new study by Naim Bro and Juan Pablo Luna, titled "Elitism in the Aisle," introduces a replicable method to measure elite representation in legislatures using surnames. By pairing contemporary socioeconomic criteria with historical elite registers, the researchers tracked the enduring-elite share in Chile's Congress over nearly two centuries. They built a dynamic population reference from 22.65 million birth registrations, enabling precise historical comparisons. The results show a steady decline from about 50% elite membership in the 1860s to roughly 12% by the 2010s, with a notable drop of 11–13 percentage points immediately following the 1925 constitutional reform.
Beyond composition, the study links who sits in Congress to what Congress debates. Between 1910 and 1950, legislators with common surnames prioritized labor issues, while those from elite backgrounds focused on a "statecraft agenda"—defense, foreign affairs, and administration—regardless of party affiliation. This co-movement suggests that descriptive representation (the social makeup of lawmakers) substantively shapes legislative priorities. The method offers a robust, data-driven tool for studying historical representation where traditional class records are scarce, with potential applications beyond Chile.
- Analyzed 22.65 million birth registrations to track elite surname prevalence in Chilean Congress from 1834 to 2020
- Elite share fell from ~50% in the 1860s to ~12% in the 2010s, with a sharp 11–13 point drop after 1925 constitutional reform
- Between 1910–1950, common-surname legislators emphasized labor; elite lawmakers focused on defense, foreign affairs, and administration
Why It Matters
Provides a replicable data-driven method to measure historical elite influence and its real impact on legislative agendas.