East Asia’s crisis of confidence in the US is militarising China’s backyard
A US-Israeli war on Iran has shattered confidence, pushing Japan and South Korea to build their own long-range missiles.
The strategic shockwaves from a US-Israeli war on Iran have reached East Asia, fundamentally undermining Washington's credibility as a security guarantor. According to analyst Wenran Jiang, the conflict revealed a superpower seen as overstretched and unreliable, forcing allies like Japan and South Korea to confront a brutal reality: hosting US forces could make them targets in a conflict with China. This crisis of confidence arrives at a dangerous inflection point for regional military postures.
In response, US-aligned powers are rapidly pursuing independent military capabilities, effectively militarizing China's periphery. Japan is shedding post-war constraints to develop long-range anti-ship and hypersonic missiles with ranges exceeding 1,000km, capabilities clearly aimed at Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. South Korea, facing a distracted US and an emboldened North Korea, has deployed the Hyunmoo-5 'monster missile'—a bunker buster with a 3,000km range—as an independent deterrent. Taiwan is also investing heavily in anti-ship missiles to break potential blockades.
This regional arms buildup, driven by doubts about US resolve and capability, creates a more volatile and complex security environment. Paradoxically, while intended to counter China's rise, this militarization of its backyard may worsen Beijing's own external security situation by introducing new, unpredictable actors with advanced strike capabilities. The article concludes that a region losing faith in Washington is not necessarily embracing Beijing, but is instead reaching for its own guns.
- The US-Israeli war on Iran catastrophically damaged US credibility, making allies question the value and danger of American security guarantees.
- Japan is developing long-range missiles (1,000km+) and hypersonic weapons, while South Korea has deployed the 3,000km-range Hyunmoo-5 'bunker buster' missile.
- This independent arms race creates a more militarized, volatile environment around China, potentially worsening Beijing's security despite its intent to counter Chinese power.
Why It Matters
Shifting alliance dynamics and a regional arms race directly impact global tech supply chains, defense investments, and geopolitical risk for multinational corporations.