Double elimination proposed for 64-team FIFA World Cup to boost match quality

As FIFA expands the World Cup to 48 teams and debates a future 64-team edition, traditional round-robin group stages followed by knockout phases become increasingly problematic. In a new paper on arXiv, computer scientist César Rennó-Costa models double-elimination structures for a 64-team mega-event, finding they eliminate all matches that lack competitive relevance—a flaw that grows with larger fields. The double-elimination format also sharply increases the probability of fixtures between top-ranked contenders, addressing a key criticism of the current system where elite teams often face weak opponents early on.

However, these benefits come with trade-offs. Double-elimination introduces heightened scheduling complexity and an asymmetric distribution of matches per team, meaning some squads could play significantly more games than others—a logistical challenge for tournament organizers. Rennó-Costa argues that continuously scaling traditional tournament architectures is unsustainable and that the World Cup, and similar mega-events, must pivot toward non-traditional designs to maintain competitive fairness and fan engagement. The paper provides a game-theoretic framework for evaluating such alternatives.