Cost of Cultured Meat: workshop, modeling, resources, feedback

Rethink Priorities researcher David Reinstein is spearheading a pivotal online workshop scheduled for April/May 2026, focused on forecasting the production cost of cultured meat (CM). The initiative, part of the organization's "Cultivated Meat Pivotal Questions" project, aims to resolve significant disagreements in existing techno-economic analyses (TEAs). Current projections vary wildly, from Humbird's 2021 estimate of $37/kg to Pasitka et al.'s 2024 estimate of $13.75/kg, with the latter's ties to industry raising questions about bias. The workshop seeks participation from bioprocess engineers, cell biologists, animal welfare funders, and forecasters to collaboratively model whether CM can achieve the necessary cost parity with conventional meat to justify large-scale investment.

Central to the effort is a newly released, interactive Monte Carlo simulation tool designed to make cost assumptions explicit and adjustable. This AI-generated model is a work-in-progress intended to structure discussion and identify consensus, disagreements, and key cruxes. Participants can engage live during the ~3-hour workshop or asynchronously through belief elicitation and annotation via Hypothes.is. The focal question, also posted on Metaculus as "CM_01," asks: what will be the average production cost per edible kg of cultured chicken in 2036? The outcome will directly inform high-stakes funding decisions for animal welfare organizations weighing proven interventions against speculative technological development.