MacAskill vs Forethought: When to donate in the AI race
MacAskill says give 5% now, but Forethought argues for 30-50%—here's why
Will MacAskill, co-founder of the effective altruism movement and Oxford professor, recently proposed that large donors should invest their philanthropic capital now and wait until after the anticipated AI intelligence explosion to distribute funds. In a draft shared with select outlets, MacAskill suggests donors allocate just 5% of their current philanthropic budgets by 2029, arguing that AI investment returns could dwarf traditional philanthropic impact in the coming years.
Forethought Foundation, a forward-looking philanthropic organization, pushed back in a viral draft response. They argue donors should commit 30-50% of their philanthropic budgets by 2029, citing that philanthropic funding will grow faster than AI investment returns. The core disagreement stems from timing: MacAskill believes waiting maximizes impact when AI systems fully substitute human labor, while Forethought contends that giving now seeds organizations that can scale exponentially as AI capabilities advance. The debate reflects broader tensions between long-term AI safety investments and immediate humanitarian or existential risk mitigation.
- MacAskill (Oxford/80,000 Hours) recommends donors invest now and give just 5% by 2029, believing AI returns will outpace philanthropic impact
- Forethought Foundation argues for allocating 30-50% of philanthropic budgets by 2029, citing faster growth in traditional funding
- The debate centers on whether to prioritize immediate seeding of organizations vs. waiting for AI to 'take over' philanthropic distribution
Why It Matters
This debate determines whether humanity can guide AI development or cedes control entirely to automated systems.