Present Bias and Planning Fallacy: Why We Betray Our Future Selves
Every abandoned blog and stalled project exposes our disconnect from who we'll be tomorrow...
The viral essay 'Connect to your future selves' argues that while your past self shapes your identity, your future self is about practical life-building through a policy of charity and trust. Act charitably toward your future self, they argue, and you inherit a better life. Yet many people are woefully disconnected, living in an eternal present where the future is imaginary and its problems don't matter. The internet is a graveyard of barely-started projects: abandoned blogs with one or two posts and 'coming soon' pages from 2013, illustrating how enthusiasm collapses into neglect.
The author identifies two cognitive traps behind this. The first is present bias: the emotional high after finishing work makes us overcommit to future workloads we can't sustain. The second is the planning fallacy: humans consistently underestimate project length, even when they know they do it every time. This disconnect leads to high time preference, where immediate rewards are systematically favored over better future outcomes. The essay's key insight is that being disconnected from your future self makes real planning impossible—what you call planning becomes just wishing, and your failures surprise no one but you.
- Abandoned projects: countless domain names and blogs have only 1-2 posts, often with 'sorry, I'll post more' notes from years ago.
- Present bias: the motivational high after finishing work leads to unrealistic promises that your future self cannot keep.
- Planning fallacy: people chronically underestimate project duration even when they are explicitly aware of their own bias.
Why It Matters
Overcoming present bias and planning fallacy is essential for sustainable productivity and achieving long-term professional goals.