China’s weight-loss drug makers take on global giants as Novo Nordisk patent expires

The patent cliff for Novo Nordisk's blockbuster drug semaglutide has officially arrived in China, opening a massive opportunity for domestic pharmaceutical companies. With the patent expiring on March 20, at least 10 weight-loss injections and oral pills are now lining up for regulatory approval. Leading the charge are China's largest listed pharma firm, Hengrui Medicine, and Innovent Biologics, whose lower-dose mazdutide recently became the first home-grown obesity drug approved for chronic weight management in the country. The market they're entering is projected to reach about $14 billion by 2030, a significant portion of the global market where semaglutide alone generated $35 billion in revenue last year.

What makes this competitive threat substantial is the reported superior efficacy of the Chinese candidates. Hengrui's once-weekly injection, ribupatide, showed an average weight loss of 17.7% at its highest 6mg dose over 48 weeks in Phase 3 trials. Innovent's higher-dose (9mg) version of mazdutide achieved an even greater 18.55% average reduction at week 60. Both figures suggest these drugs could outperform the established benchmark set by semaglutide. This development is facilitated by China's drug regulator, the NMPA, which is accelerating approvals for innovative therapies, partly driven by a surge in out-licensing deals with global pharmaceutical giants.