Can Iran fiasco help China edge out US in key arena of Southeast Asia?

An opinion analysis by Nikola Mikovic argues that the United States' military action against Iran in February 2026 is triggering a consequential geopolitical realignment in Southeast Asia. Following the US-led strikes, key European NATO allies refused to participate, exposing Washington's diplomatic isolation. This 'Iran fiasco' has now extended to ASEAN, where the bloc issued a March 4 statement expressing 'serious concern' over the escalation initiated by the US and Israel. Crucially, the statement was balanced and factually accurate, demonstrating ASEAN's intent not to side with Washington, despite several member states being formal US treaty allies.

This neutrality marks a significant strategic shift. The analysis draws a parallel to Russia's loss of influence in Central Asia following its invasion of Ukraine, suggesting the US now risks a similar 'erosion of influence' in Southeast Asia. While ASEAN as an institution maintains a neutral political stance, individual member nations are seen as actively distancing themselves from the US and aligning more closely with China. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy chokepoint, has hit some ASEAN economies hard, further incentivizing the bloc to prioritize regional energy integration and stability over alliance loyalty. The core question posed is whether China will successfully exploit this opening to crowd the US out of a region long considered a key arena of great-power competition.