Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications

The RAND Corporation has released a landmark 75-page report analyzing the state of artificial general intelligence (AGI) forecasting, with a unique twist: the primary drafting was performed by three leading large language models—GPT 5.1, Gemini 3 Pro, and Claude 4.5 Opus. Human researchers provided direction, peer review, fact-checking, and revision, marking a significant experiment in human-AI collaboration for policy research. The report synthesizes diverse forecasting approaches, documenting limitations in existing methods and proposing a research agenda for more robust forecasting infrastructure.

Rather than endorsing a specific forecast or scenario for AGI arrival, the report provides a framework for interpreting forecasts under conditions of deep uncertainty. It covers strategic implications for governments and organizations, emphasizing the need for better methodological tools to navigate the unpredictable path to AGI. This work represents a practical step in using AI to help analyze AI's own future, with potential to influence how policymakers and researchers approach one of the most consequential technological questions of our time.