Anthropic is having a moment in the private markets; SpaceX could spoil the party
Secondary market frenzy sees Anthropic with no sellers as OpenAI shares trade at a $765B valuation.
The private secondary market is witnessing a stark divergence between leading AI companies, according to Glen Anderson of Rainmaker Securities. Demand for Anthropic shares has become "insatiable," with buyers reportedly holding $2B ready to deploy and a severe shortage of sellers. Anderson attributes part of this surge to Anthropic's public standoff with the Department of Defense, which amplified its brand as a principled alternative to OpenAI and made its story "more differentiated."
In contrast, the market for OpenAI shares is less vibrant. Bloomberg reported roughly $600M in OpenAI shares are struggling to find buyers, with secondary trades implying a company valuation around $765B—a notable discount to its recent $852B primary-round valuation. OpenAI has warned investors to be cautious of unauthorized brokers, while banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs now offer its shares without carry fees. Goldman, however, still charges its standard 15-20% carry for Anthropic access, underscoring the premium demand.
Amid this AI stock volatility, SpaceX stands apart as a uniquely stable asset in Rainmaker's universe, described as one of the few names that never experienced a punishing correction. This three-company narrative signals a maturation in investor strategy, moving from betting on the entire AI sector to carefully evaluating company-specific differentiation, governance, and long-term stability.
- Anthropic faces $2B in buy-side demand with virtually no sellers available, making it the hardest stock to source.
- OpenAI shares are trading at a secondary-market valuation of ~$765B, a discount to its $852B primary-round price.
- SpaceX remains a standout stable asset, avoiding corrections seen elsewhere, as investors shift from blanket AI bets to targeted picks.
Why It Matters
Signals a major shift in how institutional capital evaluates AI companies, prioritizing differentiation and stability over sector-wide hype.