Anthropic eyes $2T IPO valuation, largest ever, as revenue soars

Anthropic, the AI startup behind the Claude models, is expected to go public in October at a valuation of $2 trillion or more, according to half a dozen investors told the Financial Times. That figure would eclipse SpaceX's $1.77 trillion public debut and make Anthropic's IPO the largest ever. The investors justify their expectations with explosive revenue growth: the company's annualized revenue surpassed $47 billion in May, and investors project it could reach $100–120 billion by the end of 2026—more than 10 times current levels. Anthropic's valuation already leapfrogged OpenAI's to $965 billion in May, and nearly $100 billion has been poured into the company in 2026 alone. Still, executives have not officially set the IPO valuation target, and some investors note that even at a conservative 30x revenue multiple, a $3 trillion valuation is plausible, given the company's ~800% annual growth rate.

But the bullish outlook faces significant headwinds. In June, the Commerce Department temporarily banned Anthropic's best models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, after export controls were imposed, contributing to a slowdown in revenue growth that month. The company is also in active litigation with the US Department of Defense and has clashed repeatedly with the Trump administration. Meanwhile, customers are becoming more price-sensitive: Anthropic's flagship model costs 2.5x more than OpenAI's top model, and cheaper Chinese open-weight alternatives have improved dramatically. Data from Ramp shows Anthropic gained US business market share last month, but analysts also found businesses are "hitting their limit on AI spend" and switching to less powerful, cheaper models. These challenges, combined with growing investor nervousness about the AI boom, could test the $2 trillion valuation when Anthropic hits the public markets.