An easy coordination problem?
A viral post asks why the world's most powerful AI CEOs can't solve a basic coordination problem to prevent catastrophe.
A provocative post titled "An easy coordination problem?" has gone viral on the AI forum LessWrong, directly challenging the narrative that an AI arms race is inevitable. Author KatjaGrace singles out four of the most prominent CEOs in AI—Sam Altman of OpenAI, Elon Musk of xAI, Demis Hassabis of Google DeepMind, and Dario Amodei of Anthropic—who have all publicly warned that advanced AI poses a huge, imminent risk to humanity. The core argument is that if these individuals genuinely believe their own warnings, coordinating a pause should be a tractable problem for them, given their unique resources and capabilities.
The post systematically dismantles potential excuses, noting these leaders are not "average people" but include a world champion in the game Diplomacy, a king of operational efficiency, and a gifted social maneuverer. It questions what the precise, practical obstacle is: Is it that they can't get each other on the phone? That they couldn't design a verification scheme? Or that China's leader is "beyond reason or incentives"? The author concludes by expressing skepticism that these individuals are "bringing their A game" to what they claim is an existential crisis, forcing readers to re-examine the sincerity of the risk warnings versus the competitive drive to build. The post has sparked intense debate about the real motivations and constraints within the AI industry's top echelons.
- Targets CEOs Sam Altman, Elon Musk, Demis Hassabis, and Dario Amodei—all of whom have issued stark AI risk warnings.
- Argues that given their unique power, intelligence, and social skills, coordinating a safety pause should be "tractable."
- Challenges the standard 'geopolitical arms race' excuse by asking for specific, practical obstacles to CEO-level coordination.
Why It Matters
Forces a critical examination of the gap between AI leaders' apocalyptic warnings and their continued, competitive product development.