2026's historic snow drought is bad news for the West
Over half of Western river basins have less than 50% of normal snow water equivalent this March.
The Western United States is facing an unprecedented snow drought in 2026, with winter conditions that have left mountain snowpacks at dangerously low levels. According to data from the USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service, only five of approximately 70 river basins across the region are at or above the 1991-2020 median snow water equivalent for late March. More than half of basins are below 50% of normal, with 11 basins at less than 25% of historical averages. The headwaters of critical rivers including the Colorado, Columbia, and Missouri are particularly affected.
This snow drought results from a triple whammy of weather conditions: December was too warm, January was too dry, and February was again too warm. Warm temperatures caused precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, while dry conditions prevented accumulation even at higher elevations. The National Snow and Ice Data Center reports the total area with snow cover is exceptionally low compared to 2001-2025 averages.
The implications for summer water supplies are severe. Snowpacks serve as natural reservoirs that release water gradually through summer months, supporting agriculture, communities, and ecosystems. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System suggests 2026 will be a tight water year, with water managers in Wyoming and Washington already signaling reduced allocations. Under the Doctrine of Prior Appropriation, junior water rights holders face the greatest risk of receiving less than their full allotments.
- Only 5 of 70 Western river basins are at normal snow levels, with over half below 50% of historical averages
- Warm temperatures caused precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow during critical accumulation months
- Water managers are already signaling reduced allocations, particularly affecting junior water rights holders
Why It Matters
This threatens agricultural irrigation, municipal water supplies, and increases wildfire risk across Western states this summer.