2 months into the Iran war, who holds the upper hand?

Two months after US and Israeli strikes began, the war on Iran has settled into a costly stalemate. The fighting is paused under a fragile Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, direct talks have collapsed, and neither side shows signs of yielding. Last weekend, Washington's envoys canceled their planned trip to the Pakistani capital for further talks after Tehran declared it would not join negotiations until the US Navy ended its blockade of Iranian ports.

Analysts argue that both sides are now eyeing the exit, though Tehran and Washington each think they still have greater power to shape the war's ultimate outcome. Middle East expert Niu Xinchun, vice-president of Ningxia University, attributed this impasse to self-confidence on both sides, stating at a China and Globalisation Forum event in Beijing on April 26 that "Both the United States and Iran believe they hold the upper hand."