100 days to midterms: Trump GOP faces House loss over inflation, Iran war
Democrats have 59% chance to flip the House, threatening Trump with new investigations.
One hundred days before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026, President Donald Trump’s Republican Party faces a steep uphill battle. Polling indicates Democrats have a 59% probability of winning the House of Representatives, forecasting a 224-211 majority, according to Decision Desk HQ. Republicans currently hold an historically narrow majority, and midterm elections typically punish the president’s party.
Voter dissatisfaction with rising living costs and the ongoing war with Iran has depressed GOP approval ratings. A Democratic-controlled House would wield subpoena power and control key committees, likely subjecting the Trump administration to intense investigations and potentially exposing him to a third impeachment drive. The president will not be on the ballot, but the outcome will define the final two years of his term.
- Democrats have 59% chance to capture House, predicted 224-211 majority.
- Trump's GOP faces headwinds from inflation and the Iran war.
- A Democratic House could launch investigations and a third impeachment effort against Trump.
Why It Matters
Midterm outcome will determine if Trump faces two years of investigative gridlock or retains power to govern.